Are Homicides up 533% in Portland?

Technically, kind of. But use of this statistic is a classic case of the base rate fallacy.

Photo by Tabitha Mort from Pexels

I’ve long stopped expecting my elected officials to be 100% honest. It’s disheartening, and makes me a cynic for sure, but I’ve accepted that part of their job is to periodically sell their souls and carry the party talking points, even when they know…